Second Round Recap and Big Shot Bob (Rob) Tournament Update

Marc Gasol has been finger-lickin’ good (photo courtesy of USA Today)

With the conclusion of the second round and the onset of the conference finals, AGR takes a look at the recent action. Below we’ll examine the BSB(R) standings, recap round two, and preview the two conference finals series.

The BSB(R) Tournament: Where We Stand after the Second Round

Click to zoom in!

Where does everyone stand after the second round?

• Dan Leifer, last year’s winner, leads the field with 62 points.
• We have a wide range of scores. At the bottom we have Jeremy Safran AKA Dr. Gary Sapphire with 27 points. After that, we have three teams in the 30-point range, six teams in the 40-point range, eight in the 50-point range, and two in 60-point range.
• Only seven had Indiana making the ECF. In retrospect this seems like a quite the oversight.
• Once again, it comes as a shock that not one of the twenty participants had the Spurs making the NBA Finals.

Meanwhile, in the NBA…

Eastern Conference Semifinals 

Heat-Bulls: The Bulls stunned the Heat in an exciting first game played in Miami, a game that ended with LeBron having a strong fourth quarter before airballing a critical late jumper. If there were any doubts that Game 1 raised, the Heat put them to rest in Game 2. They beat the Bulls 115-78, which marked the biggest playoff victory and loss for the respective franchises. The Heat would go on to win in 5.

• Hero: LeBron James
  
• Goat:  The Chicago injury bug (Rose, Deng, and Hinrich were injured the entire series).
• Line of the Series: Chris Bosh had 20 points and 19 boards to go along with 4 assists, 2 blocks, and a steal to help win Game 3 in Chicago.

Knicks-Pacers: This wasn’t the prettiest of series, which helps explain why the gritty Pacers triumphed over the Knicks. The Pacers stole Game 1 in Madison Square Garden, which was all it took to get an edge; in every other game the home-team held serve, allowing the Pacers to finish the series at home in six. The series was a tale of strength (Pacers) vs. finesse (Knicks). Roy Hibbert held down the paint as well as any center has so far this playoffs, highlighted by this block on Melo. It was also a story of individual vs. team basketball. Carmelo took on a huge load, shooting the ball 25 times per game. Ultimately, he and fellow isolationist J.R. Smith were not consistent or efficient enough to overcome the team-oriented Pacers.

• Hero: Roy Hibbert
  
• Goat: J.R. Smith, Tyson Chandler, or Mike Woodson…take your pick.
• Line of the Series: Hibbert scored 21 points, grabbed 12 boards, dished 2 assists, and blocked 5 shots in a series-clinching Game 6.

Western Conference Semifinals  

Thunder-Grizzlies: Some thought the Thunder stood a chance against the Grizzlies–after all, they do have the second-best player in the world. Alas, without Russell Westbrook, a potentially epic series was instead a 4-1 victory for the Grizz. After narrowly escaping the Grizzlies for a Game 1 win, the Thunder lost four straight, each game becoming more frustrating for the helpless Kevin Durant. While all the games were decided by six-points or fewer, the Grizzlies seemed to always dictate the style and pace of the game. Coming out of the series, many consider the Grizzlies favorites to emerge from the West.

• Hero: Marc Gasol
• Goat: Kendrick Perkins
• Line of the Series: In a close Game 2 loss, Durant tallied 36 points (11-22 FG), 11 rebounds, and 9 assists.

Spurs-Warriors: The two teams might as well have had a three-point shooting contest, but David Stern apparently wanted to play it out the old-fashioned way. And the old-fashioned team, the Spurs, is the team that prevailed. In what many called the most entertaining game of the year, the Spurs won a double-overtime Game 1 thriller capped off by Manu Ginobili’s game-winner. The Warriors won Game 2, which meant they nearly returned to the Bay up 2-0 on the higher-seeded Spurs. Instead of riding that momentum, the San Antonio won three of the next four. Unfortunately, the series was never able to capture the excitement of Game 1; Game 2 was decided by nine points and the rest were all decided by 10 or more.

• Hero: Tough call here, but I’ll go with Tony Parker
• Goat: Draymond Green
• Line of the Series: Klay Thompson had 34 points (8-9 3PT) to go along with 14 boards and 3 steals in a Game 2 victory in San Antonio

Moving forward, here are some things to look for in the conference finals…

Heat-Pacers…

• Which Dwyane Wade will show up, the MVP-caliber Wade or the nagging-knee-injury Wade?
• Will Miami try and match Indy’s size or will they go small to exploit their speed and shooting advantage?
• With Paul George on the wing and Hibbert the middle, can Indy bottle up LeBron James?
• Who will step up on offense for Indiana? Which Miami role players will find playing time and their shooting strokes during the series?

Spurs-Grizzlies…

• Can the Grizzlies’ dedication to physicality and defense trump the Spurs’ versatility?
• Who will win the Gasol-Duncan matchup? The Parker-Conley matchup?
• Will Jerryd Bayless and Quincy Pondexter stretch the floor enough to open up space for the slashing and board-crashing that the Grizz need?
• What type of health can we expect from Leonard, Parker, and Ginobili?

We’ll have to wait and see how those questions play out. In the mean time, enjoy the conference finals!

Who are your picks to win, both the playoffs and the AGR tourney? Comment on the article or e-mail us at AGRbasketball (at) gmail (dot) com. Don’t forget to follow @AGRbasketball on Twitter and to like us on Facebook.

First Round Recap and Big Shot Bob (Rob) Tournament Update

Steph Curry FTW (photo courtesy of usatoday.com)

The first round of the playoffs is over, and a lot has happened already. Below we’ll take stock of the BSB(R) standings, recap the first round, and look ahead to the conference semi-final matchups.

The BSB(R) Tournament: An Updated Spreadsheet

Click to zoom in!

Where does everyone stand after the first round?

• The tourney leader is Grandpa Bernie (Bernard Chovitz) with 50 points. 
• He and Joe Bubar (second with 48 points) were the only to predict every series winner correctly.
• Bernie and T-Mac (Tommy MacCarthy) also managed to predict the correct outcome and number of games for each series in the East. Impressive.
• Defending champion Dan Leifer is doing well with 43 (tied for fourth); 2010-11 champion Andrew Wise, on the other hand, has the dubious standing of ranking below me (33 and 34 points, respectively).
• The majority of people chose the Bulls and the Clippers to win against their opponents–as a group we nailed the Bulls but underestimated the Grizzlies.
• Perhaps most impressively, a solid 7 out of 20 correctly had the Warriors over the Nuggets. This stands in sharp contrast to ESPN’s panel of 18, where the Nuggets were a unanimous pick to win. Nice work, team.

As for the NBA playoffs… 

First Round: East

Heat-Bucks: LeBron and the Heat went about business as usual, sweeping the Bucks without any real difficulty.

• Hero: LeBron James.
• Goat: Brandon Jennings and Jim Boylan.
• Line of the Series: James went for 27 points (9-11 FG), 10 boards, and 8 assists in a close-out Game 4.

Nets-Bulls: After a roller-coaster of a series, the Bulls prevailed on the road in an epic Game 7, despite being without the injured Kirk Hinrich and Luol Deng. It was a series of unpredictability, highlighted by the triple-overtime game that saw Nate Robinson enter God-mode.

• Hero: Nate Robinson
• Goat: Joe Johnson
• Line of the Series: With one foot, Joakim Noah had 24 points (12-17 FG), 14 rebounds, and 6 blocks in Game 7.

Pacers-Hawks: In what might be Josh Smith’s last series as a Hawk, the Pacers put their foot down in Atlanta to close out the series in six games. There were close games and good battles–Josh Smith on Paul George was particularly entertaining–but Indiana’s defense and Atlanta’s shooting woes tipped the scales in favor of the Pacers.

• Hero: Paul George
• Goat: Atlanta PGs (Devin Harris and Jeff Teague)
• Line of the Series: George scored 21 points (7-8 FG), pulled down 10 boards, and handed out 5 assists in a Game 5 blowout.

Knicks-Celtics: Even though this series didn’t go seven games, it might have been the most entertaining matchup in the East. There were suspensions, funereal attire, overtimes, and of course, a healthy dose of “Steez.” Down three games to none, the Celtics won two games straight, nearly overcoming a deficit no NBA team has done before. 

• Hero: Raymond Felton
• Goat: Paul Pierce, but it’s tempting to choose J.R. Smith
• Line of the Series: Melo had 36 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 steals in a tone-setting Game 1.

First Round: West

Thunder-Rockets: Good storylines ran throughout this series–Harden’s return, a close series, Reggie Jackson’s emergence–but it was all overshadowed by Russell Westbrook’s knee injury. The Rockets did their best to put a scare into the Thunder, playing them close the majority of the games. Like the Celtics, they also came back from three games down to bring the series to 3-2, but ultimately they fell victim to Kevin Durant’s consistent greatness.

• Hero: Kevin Durant
• Goat: This.
• Line of the Series: Tough to choose with so many good games from Durant, but I’ll choose his 41 point, 14 rebound, 4 assist masterpiece in a close Game 3 victory.

Clippers-Grizzlies: Chris Paul did his best to carry the Clippers, but beyond a Game 1 buzzer-beater, his scoring wasn’t the winning forumla. After Blake’s injury before Game 4, the Clips didn’t have enough fire power to compete. Credit the Grizz, though. Gasol’s ability to anchor the defense, Conley’s steady play against CP3, Randolph’s mind games with Griffin, and Tony Allen’s all-court play all proved important to their first round victory.

• Hero: Zach Randolph
• Goat: Blake Griffin
• Line of the Series: Matt Barnes shot 11 for 14 from the field en route to 30 points and 10 boards in Game 6.

Nuggets-Warriors: Bad ankles, double teams, and hitmen couldn’t stop Steph Curry. After David Lee went down, Mark Jackson moved Harrison Barnes to the power forward spot as a stretch four. The experiment worked–Golden State shot over 40% from three from the series and won in six games. Ty Lawson played great and Andre Miller hit a game winner, but none of it was enough to overcome the red-hot Dubs.

• Hero: Stephen Curry
• Goat: Corey Brewer or Wilson Chandler, take your pick
• Line of the Series: Curry poured in 30 points (13-23 FG) to go along with 13 assists in a crucial Game 2 win in Denver.

Spurs-Lakers: The least exciting of the eight series ended with a Spurs sweep of the Lakers. So much for “classic rivalry.” Dwight Howard got ejected from Game 4, giving the world a head start on speculating what will come of his 2013 free agency.

• Hero: The Spurs’ organization and health
• Goat: The Lakers’ season and lack of health
• Line of the Series: Duncan went for a cool 26 (12-16 FG), 9, and 3 in Game 3.

What to look for in the second round…

• Can the Bulls put a serious scare into the Heat after stealing Game 1?
• Which Melo and J.R. Smith will show up against the tough Indy defense?
• Can the hot-shooting Warriors continue their magic against a veteran Spurs team?
• Can a Westbrook-less Thunder defend their Western Conference crown against the a bruising Grizzlies team?

We’ll have to wait and see how those questions play out. In the mean time, enjoy the second round!

Who are your picks to win, both the playoffs and the AGR tourney? Comment on the article or e-mail us at AGRbasketball (at) gmail (dot) com. Don’t forget to follow @AGRbasketball on Twitter and to like us on Facebook.

The Frank Reynolds Trashman All-Star Team: 2012-13 Edition

Head Coach: Frank Reynolds

“One man’s trash is another man’s treasure.” — Unnamed descendent of Frank Reynolds

The above saying is a motto I live by, as an every day person and as a basketball player. It allows me to eat and dress myself without breaking the bank (I don’t make much money). On the basketball court, this mentality provides me opportunities to contribute in ways I might not get otherwise get (my trashman stench usually dissuades teammates from passing to me).

Scoring might drive salary, awards, and popularity, but trashmen–guys who clean up loose balls and do all the dirty work–are necessary for winning games.  It’s awards season in the NBA and because they never get the recognition they deserve, AGR honors the NBA’s trashmen below in the 2012-13 Frank Reynolds Trashman All-Star Team.

The rules: A Frank Reynolds Trashman can average no more than 12.0 points per 36 minutes for the 2012-13. Beyond that, the selections are stats-informed but subjective. The overarching goal is to compose the best team possible while also honoring the best individual players. All stats are courtesy of basketball-reference.com. In the tables below, we’ve also included a minimum* for total minutes (700), PER (10.0), and WS/48 (.100). All tables are sorted by total Win Shares.

Guards 

Point Guard: Patrick Beverly
Backup: Pablo Prigioni

Patrick Beverly became Public Enemy No. 1 in OKC for inadvertently injuring Russell Westbrook, but here at AGR we salute his tireless and stanky swag. He might rank last in Win Shares among the above qualified guards, but in this group he had the highest PER, WS/48, and trash-juice concentrasion. His all-around game combined with his speed/ athleticism will allow him to create shots and penetrate the defense on a team devoid of this skillset. Pablo Prigioni’s quick hands and old-man savvy earn a spot as backup on this rancid, rancid team. Those qualities also make him a surefire dumpster-diver.

Shooting Guard: Thabo Sefolosha
Backup: Lance Stephenson

Remarkably, given this year’s criteria, only two shooting guards qualified for the team: Thabo Sefolosha and Lance Stephenson. Jason Kidd and D.J. Augustin spent time at the two-guard, but neither were good enough to warrant a spot on the roster anyway. Sefolosha has long been regarded as this current era’s Bruce Bowen (one of the assistant coaches on the squad), and rightfully so. Thabo’s scrappiness belies his notably pristine home country, Switzerland. He shoots well and is no-mistakes kind of guy on both sides of the floor. Within the starting unit, his poised play contrasts with Beverly’s energy; on the bench, Stephenson’s reckless drives to the hoop compliments Prigioni’s more deliberate attack. Lance’s crazed energy also helps drive away the rats in our homey underpass of a lockerroom.

Forwards

Small Forward: Jimmy Butler
Backup: Shane Battier

There are more qualified forwards than guards, making the above list a tad difficult to parse, especially if you’re illiterate like fellow trashman Charlie Kelly. But if any one thing stands out, it’s Jimmy Butler’s dominance over the “competition.” There isn’t a box-score category where Butler stands out, other than his ability to play no-foul defense. As a total package, though, he’s far and away the best of the bunch. Between Butler playing both wing positions and backup Shane Battier playing both forward spots, there is some serious versatility. But why else does Battier deserve the backup spot over, say, Steve Novak? Like any true filth-hoarder, Battier’s not afraid to hit the floor. he dives for balls, takes charges, and does what ne needs to do to help his team win. It’s why Battier was dubbed the no-stats All-Star. The dude could coach this team if he wanted, or any team for that matter. Plus, his new look would make any trashman proud.

Power Forward: Nick Collison
Backup: Jared Sullinger

Even though it’s painful to leave out the grizzled and ungainly Reggie Evans, only Nick Collison and Jared Sullinger had the necessary versatility to make the team. Collison is a no-brainer as the starter. He’s extremely efficient in his (limited) scoring. He’s the type of guy who will take a charge from LeBron James or box out an opponent while his teammate snags the rebound. Little things like this help explain why his plus/minus stats have been excellent through the years. He’s resourceful–rumor has it that after being hazed as a rookie he fetched dumpster-donuts for the Sonics as silent and grimy revenge.  Rookie Jared Sullinger rebounds well on both ends and spreads the floor with his soft touch. His fate as a trashman is destiny.  There’s nothing more grittier than the Boston announcers screaming “Sully!” His nick-name literally means “to make dirty.” Perfect.

Centers

Center: Joakim Noah
Backup: Tyson Chandler

The two guys to make the team are obvious–Tyson Chandler and Joakim Noah. Less obvious is who the starter should be between them. It’s a coin-flip, so we might as well go on whose trashman looks are superior. I vote Noah and his unshowered mop over Tyson’s “trashman class.” Chandler’s scoring efficiency, once again, is of historic proportion, but much of that is due to elite offensive rebounding. On this team, as opposed to the Melo-led Knicks, playmaking will be important for the starting center. That’s why, in light of his passing, defense, and scoring versatility, I’m going with Noah.

Head Coach: Frank Reynolds aka The Trashman
Big man coaches: Horace Grant, Dennis Rodman
Swingman coach: Bruce Bowen
Point guard coach: Mark Jackson

Three thoughts before I leave to go trash-hunting (don’t ask).

1. It’s worth noting that, without exception, all of the above qualified players are on teams that made the playoffs this year. That says something about the importance of trashmen to winning games.
2. All of the above players are above the .100 league average in WS/48 (they had to be by the imposed minimum), but very few are near the PER league average (15.0). Whether that’s related or not to point number one is a good starter for a healthy stats debate.
3. The 12.0 PTS/36 cutoff was arbitrary. If we had used last year’s 15.0 cutoff, many more players would have qualified–too many guys and too much scoring for my garbage-inclined sensibilities. That said, I’d feel bad if I didn’t give these quasi-trashmen love. Below is a table of qualified players who scored between 12.0 and  15.0 PTS/36, sorted by Win Shares.

For what it’s worth, my starting five of the below players would be: PG: George Hill, SG: Tony Allen, SF: Kawhi Leonard, PF: Kenneth Faried, C: Marc Gasol.

*A minutes limit was necessary, but how to choose the exact number? I wanted Beverly on my team, and he was just above 700 total minutes, so I decided on that. And the other criteria? The minimum for PER (10.0) is well-below league average while the minimum for WS/48 (.100); because PER favors scorers, it was important to lower the PER min to increase the number of eligible trashmen. Regardless of how you feel about these minimums, it’s highly unlikely that anyone who didn’t meet one of the minimums would have otherwise made the team.

Who do you think the best trashmen in the NBA? Who would make Frank Reynolds proud? Comment on the article or e-mail us at AGRbasketball (at) gmail (dot) com. Don’t forget to follow @AGRbasketball on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

AGR’s 4th Annual “Big Shot Bob (Rob)” Playoff Tournament

FTW

The NBA playoffs are upon us, which means it’s time for the AGR institution “Big Shot Bob (Rob)” playoff tournament. I’m proud to say it is our fourth year running this tournament, and I’m scared to say that two of the previous three winners are once again participating in this year’s contest. Last year’s winner was Dan Leifer in a close finish, but this year it’s unlikely he’ll win given that we have a record-high twenty participants.

Before unveiling everybody’s picks, let’s go over some of the prominent storylines for each first round series…

In the East…

• Heat-Bucks: Will the Heat show the same focus and intensity that led to their 27-game win streak, or will Brandon Jennings and company steal a game or four from the defending champs?
• Nets-Bulls: Are Joakim Noah and the Bulls healthy and motivated enough to take down a Nets team led by a rejuvenated Deron Williams?
• Pacers-Hawks: Can a slumping Pacers team regroup for the playoffs behind first time All-Star Paul George? Can the Hawks make enough noise to keep Josh Smith, or better yet, woo Dwight Howard?
• Knicks-Celtics: Will the Knicks handle the Rondo-less Celtics the way a two-seed should? Or might the always-dangerous Celtics surprise us with an upset?

In the West…

• Thunder-Rockets: Which James Harden will show up–the Harden who torched the Thunder on 14-19 shooting en route to 42 points early in the season or the Harden that struggled in the season’s latter two matchups? Can the Thunder defense make a statement against a potent Rockets attack?
• Clippers-Grizzlies: In a rematch of last year’s epic seven-game series, will Rudy Gay’s departure help or hurt the team when games get gritty? Can the Clippers second unit can be as devastating on defense as they were in the regular season?
• Nuggets-Warriors: Between two teams who like to play fast, which style of relentlessness–the Nuggets’ rim-attack or the Warriors’ three-point barrage–will win out? How will injuries to David Lee and Danilo Gallinari affect each team?
• Spurs-Lakers: A classic rivalry without a classic participant (a certain Kobe Bean Bryant). Will the Lakers build on their late-season momentum and upset a hurting Spurs team a la the 2010-11 Grizzlies? Or will the Spurs regain their early season form and dominate like the top-three team that they are?

There are many other questions to ponder, and we’ll revisit them in future posts as the postseason rolls forward. For now let’s return to the Big Shot Bob tournament. The rules are simple:

All participants make their predictions through the finals before the start of the first playoff games. Predicting the series winner is worth 5 points. Predicting the correct number of games in the series is worth 2 points (only if the series winner is correct).

The winner will win a prize and gets to either write a guest post on AGR or choose a future topic for a blogpost, even if it’s about Popeye Jones’s ear-evolution or a chronicle of Nick Young’s assists.

And finally, the picks!

Click to zoom in!

There are a lot of participants and a lot of information to take in, so allow me to go over some of the highlights:

• The Heat are overwhelming favorites to win the title among our group. 13 people picked the Heat, 3 picked the Thunders, 2 picked the Knicks, 1 picked the Rockets, and 1 picked the Bulls. The Knicks and Rockets picks, by admission of the contestants, were more hopeful than predictive. I have yet to generate a plausible explanation for the Bulls pick.
• As you can gather above, the Spurs are not picked by any to be an NBA champion. In fact, nobody even picked them to make the the finals. Meanwhile, the Rockets and Knicks make the finals in two brackets. Strange world we live in.
• A whopping 16 out of 20 predicted the Heat to sweep the Bucks, and the other four people saw them winning in five games. Not much faith in the Bucks for this crowd. In contrast, not a single person predicted the Thunder to sweep the Rockets.
• What about upsets? Despite not having home-court and a hurting Noah, 15 out of 20 predicted the Bulls to beat the Nets. The 4-5 series in the West was more evenly split (12 for the Clippers, 8 for the Grizzlies).
• On a similar note, a surprising number of people picked the Warriors to upset the injury-plagued Nuggets (7 out of 20). Given that the Nuggets won without Faried and that David Lee is now injured, things look bleek for the Warriors.

And that’s where we stand. Tune back in after Round 1 for a Big Shot Bob (Rob) Playoff Tournament update. Good luck to all participants, players and teams!

Who are your picks to win, both the playoffs and the AGR tourney? Comment on the article or e-mail us at AGRbasketball (at) gmail (dot) com. Don’t forget to follow @AGRbasketball on Twitter and to like us on Facebook.

Choosing a First-Half MVP for Each Team: Western Conference

This  is a follow-up to our previous post on the top player for each Eastern Conference team so far this year. Again, the primary statistical resources used were basketball-reference.com (for PER and Win Shares), 82games.com (for opponent PER and Net +/-), and godismyjudgeok.com (for ASPM and VORP).

Dallas Mavericks (O.J. Mayo): Not a lot has gone right for the Mavs this year, but their decision to sign Mayo for the cut-rate price of $8.2 million over two years is looking very prudent. Relegated to a peripheral role in his last two seasons in Memphis, the fifth-year guard, who only turned 25 this season, is enjoying his finest season as a pro for the Mavs while leading the team in both minutes (35.8 per game) and scoring (17.8 ppg). Mayo’s underrated ball-handling and playmaking (19.9 AST%) have come in handy on a roster without a pass-first point guard, while only 7 qualifying players can match his elite shooting splits from the line (.856 FT%) and beyond the arc (.413 3p%). Darren Collison (4.1 WS) edges Mayo (3.8) in Win Shares, but Mayo gets the nod here for shouldering the bulk of the team’s offensive load under tough circumstances.

Denver Nuggets (Kenneth Faried): Denver didn’t really get rolling until after the new year, as its main offensive weapons in Ty Lawson, Andre Iguodala and Danilo Gallinari each struggled to find their shot against a tough early schedule. Faried, however, has been one of the most dependable big men in the league, tying for fifth among all power forwards with 23 double doubles while pacing the Nuggets in Win Shares (5.8) and VORP (2.99).

Golden State Warriors (Stephen Curry): David Lee may have been the Warriors’ lone All-Star selection, but Curry’s 2012-2013 could make a more lasting imprint – no player in league history has ever taken so many 3′s (7.0 3PA/G) at such an effective clip (.445 3P%). That unique skill is what makes Curry special, but he also shored up his weaker points, like his ball handling and decision making (13.3 TOV%, top 10 among starting point guards), and continues to show steady improvement defensively, allowing a 16.3 PER from opposing point guards. His 4.07 VORP tops the Warriors’ roster while ranking 11th-highest league-wide.

Houston Rockets (James Harden): Harden’s per-possession stats in OKC hinted that he could be The Man on a less star-studded roster, but you never really know how a player will handle that responsibility until actually tasked with it. Fortunately for the Rockets, Harden has proved every bit the superstar, placing 4th in the NBA in Win Shares (8.5) as Houston has jumped from 12th in the NBA in offensive efficiency last year to 4th this season.

Los Angeles Clippers (Chris Paul): Nobody outside of LeBron James and Kevin Durant is playing better ball this year than Chris Paul, who ranks just behind that duo in Win Shares (8.8) and PER (26.2). Blake Griffin (7.7 WS, 8th in the League) has made noticeable strides this season, but Paul’s two stints on the injured list this year should leave no question as to who’s driving the Clips’ success. In the 44 games with Paul in the lineup, they’ve posted a .733 Win Percentage (33-12), while they are just a .500 club (6-6) without him.

Los Angeles Lakers (Kobe Bryant): Remember when the big question mark about the 2012-2013 Lakers was how Kobe would react to a new, diminished role? Certainly seems like a long time ago now. Kobe has been the team’s one reliable star, posting 7.2 WS, good for 8th in the league (Dwight Howard is 2nd on the team at 4.7), in an NBA-leading 2,105 minutes.  It might be largely wasted on a 26-29 team, but after seeing his performance slip by every metric last year, Kobe is on pace for the 3rd-best true shooting percentage (.564) and 2nd-highest assist percentage (27.7) of his 17-season career.

Memphis Grizzlies (Marc Gasol): It’s been a breakout year for the younger Gasol, who currently leads the ambitious Grizzlies in both Win Shares (7.1) and VORP (3.79). The last line of the league’s 2nd-best defense, Gasol is cementing his reputation as one of the best low-post defenders in the league while also leading all centers in AST% (17.7) and FT% (.873).

Minnesota Timberwolves (Andrei Kirilenko): This could have been a very ugly year in Minnesota, but Kirilenko has kept the Wolves competitive with an all-action display on both ends of the court. Only Kevin Durant can match his averages in blocks, rebounds, assists, and steals. Picking up right where he left off after a one-year stint in Moscow, Kirilenko also leads Minnesota in TS% (.598), Win Shares (4.5), and ASPM (2.55).

New Orleans Hornets (Ryan Anderson): Entering the season, there was some debate about whether Anderson could be as effective without Dwight Howard sucking in defenses. He’s currently at career highs for 3PA/G (7.3) and 3p% (.396), so it’s pretty clear at this point that his game translates to any situation with a ball, a basket, and defenders hopelessly trying to get a hand in the face of the 6’10″ forward. Anderson’s rare ability to stretch the floor again ranks him among the NBA leaders in Offensive Rating (116), and while he doesn’t offer much versatility, he’s the best weapon the Hornets have until Anthony Davis realizes his massive potential.

Oklahoma City Thunder (Kevin Durant): Only once in league history has a player matched Durant’s current scoring average (29.0) and his 50/40/90 FG%/3p%/FT% splits – Larry Bird, 25 years ago. Russell Westbrook has stepped up his playmaking this year to fill the void left by James Harden, but Durant is having a season for the history books and it would take a colossal second half from LeBron James to keep the league MVP trophy out of his hands.

Phoenix Suns (Goran Dragic): These are dark days for the Suns, but it helps that Dragic is fun to watch. Enjoying the first consistent starting gig of his career, the fifth-year guard has been steady if unspectacular at the point and currently ranks 13th in the NBA in assists per game. He paces Phoenix in Win Shares (4.0) and VORP (2.46), which really isn’t saying much, but he’s a piece worth keeping as they try to add more talent to their roster.

Portland Trail Blazers (Nicolas Batum): There’s no disputing LaMarcus Aldridge‘s standing as one of the top bigs in the game, but Batum’s versatility would make him more difficult to replace. After never averaging even 2 assists a game before this year, Batum has been given more authority on offense this season and has answered with a career-best 4.9 assists per outing to match his career highs in points per game (15.3) and rebounds per game (5.9). Where he really excels, however, is on the defensive end, where he’s tasked with the Blazers’ toughest assignment and routinely locks down point guards, shooting guards, and forwards alike. Opposing small forwards are posting an anemic 12.4 PER against him this season. Though he sits behind Aldridge (5.3) and J.J. Hickson (5.1) in Win Shares, other metrics rate Batum far higher – Kevin Pelton’s WARP actually values him as better than a max player.

Sacramento Kings (DeMarcus Cousins): It’s been an up and down year for the talented 22-year-old, who has actually slipped back by most metrics after an impressive sophomore year. Still, he remains the Kings’ best chance at relevance, both now and going forward, as there simply aren’t many players who come through the league that can dominate the glass like Boogie – his TRB% has ranked in the top 20 leaguewide each season he’s been in the NBA. His 17.0 AST% also ranks third-highest among all centers.

San Antonio Spurs (Tony Parker): It’s taken a team effort to get the Spurs to their league-leading 44-12 record, as they currently have 4 players in the top 10 leaguewide in WS/48. But Parker deserves singling out – as well as all-NBA consideration – for his best season to date. His 8.8 Win Shares lead the Spurs and place him 5th in the league while putting him on pace to smash his previous career high of 9.6. Most eye-popping is his .539 FG%, which would be the highest by a point guard since John Stockton if he can keep it up.

Utah Jazz (Paul Millsap): Through trade rumors and dips in his playing time, Millsap just does what he does. He and Al Jefferson are neck in neck in terms of Win Shares (Millsap: 5.7, Jefferson: 5.6) and VORP (Jefferson: 3.31, Millsap: 3.11), but Millsap gets the edge here for holding opposing 4′s to a 16.5 PER while Jefferson surrenders an 18.9 against other centers.

Disagree with any of our selections? Let us know in the comments. You can also email us at AGRbasketball (at) gmail (dot) com, like us on Facebook, and follow us on Twitter!

Third-Year Wizards and Their Progress, Part II: Kevin Seraphin

Third-year Wizards, from left to right: Jordan Crawford, Kevin Seraphin, Trevor Booker, John Wall

Going into this season, the Washington Wizards had four rotation players in their third year: John Wall, Jordan Crawford, Kevin Seraphin, and Trevor Booker. Two of them (Crawford and Seraphin) have generally been healthy in the 2012-13 season’s first half while the other two (Wall and Booker) have largely been hurt. As we hit the season’s midpoint, we will evaluate the development of Crawford and Seraphin so far; at season’s end we will evaluate what progress Wall and Booker showed us after regaining their health. We looked at Crawford a couple weeks ago, who has since been traded to the Celtics. Today we continue with Kevin Seraphin.

When the Wizards traded for Nene and Emeka Okafor, many wondered what would happen to up-and-coming big man Kevin Seraphin. In a 2011-12 season that saw lots of losing and stagnation for the Wiz, one of the bright spots was Seraphin and his jump hook, who improved in nearly every aspect of the game from his rookie year in 2010-11.

This year? Seraphin has been nothing short of awful. He’s regressed in nearly every way, which we’ll show by looking at three things: 1) Seraphin’s basic numbers through the years, 2) Seraphin’s shot charts and tables, and 3) How Seraphin’s play has affected the team’s play so far this season.

Part 1: Seraphin’s Basic Numbers

For starters let’s look at Seraphin’s per-36 minute over the course of his three seasons.

Looking at these numbers, here’s what jumps out: He’s shooting more often than last year while shooting a lower percentage, he’s rebounding less, blocking fewer shots, and turning the ball over more.

What do more advanced box-score metrics say about Seraphin?

Here we see the same story. His TS% and eFG% are both career lows. He has a career-worst 11.3% TRB%, which is awful for a PF/C. His AST% is actually up, but that’s the lone bright spot; he’s also regressed with regards to STL%, BLK%, and TOV%.

Put it all together and you have a sizable drop-off in Player Efficiency Rating (PER), one that has brought him from about average to well-below average. In terms of Win Shares/48 min, he has shifted from an average player to a player that is producing negative wins for team.

How bad is this in the context of the league? Among the 156 players who have played a minimum of 40 games and a minimum of 23 minutes per game, the worst player has been been Austin Rivers, who ranks dead-last in PER, WS, and WS/48. But the other 155? Among them, Seraphin ranks last in both WS and WS/48 and he’s the only one with negative wins. Among those 155, he’s also fourth-worst in terms of PER, and the people below him (Battier, Biyombo, Perkins) are defensive specialists who use far fewer possessions (i.e., the type of player that PER underrates). (For the record, Perkins is not a defensive specialist, but he has the role of such a player nonetheless). If we expand this to the 253 players to play at least 40 games with any number of minutes, Seraphin still ranks fourth-worst in WS, ahead of Rivers, Michael Beasley (22.2 min/g) and Will Barton (10.7 min/g).

So, you might be asking yourself about now: What happened to our promising  big man Seraphin? Personally, I think Seraphin’s bigger role on offense (see: increased minutes per game and USG%) has zapped his energy on D and on the glass. More importantly, though, that bigger role on offense has come with some serious hiccups. Let’s examine those hiccups in some shot charts from NBA.com’s new stats tool.

Part 2: Seraphin’s Shooting Charts/Breakdown

Here are Seraphin’s shooting charts from last year (left side) and this year (right side), by FG%. (Click on a chart for a larger version in a new window.)

And below is a visualization of his shot distribution, again with last year on the left and this year on the right. (Click on a chart for a larger version in a new window.)

What is most notable here? As far FG% is concerned, Seraphin is actually shooting better on deep 2′s, but he’s shooting much worse from areas inside (and just outside) the paint.

The other important story is Seraphin’s distribution–his shots are coming from his least efficient areas on the court. Last year, 69% of his shots were close-range in the paint; this year only 46% of his shots come from there.

Where are those shots going instead? One place is Seraphin’s weakest area, midrange from the right side. Seraphin shoots nearly 16% of his shots from this region, up from 10% last year (an area from which he shot 29 FG% last year and 26 FG% this year). That 16% marks Seraphin’s second-most frequented shot-location after close-range shots in the paint. It baffles the mind, because not only is it his worst area, but one of his best areas is the same area on the opposite side of the floor; both this year and last Seraphin has shot 50% from the equivalent midrange area on the left side.

Let’s look at Seraphin’s shooting from one final perspective of his shooting, courtesy of basketball-reference.com. Below are tables of Seraphin’s shooting splits from different areas of the floor and for different types of shots (again with 2011-12 on the left side and 2012-13 on the right).

         

These tables tell us a number of things, much of which is just a confirmation of above analysis. Seraphin has improved from 16-23 feet, but he’s still shooting from there too often. From all other distances, his FG% has dramatically decreased.

As far as shot-type, Seraphin is best with his hook shot–which is something I think we all knew–but it bears repeating that he is really good with his hook shots. But his jumpers? He shot 34.6 FG% on them last year, and this year he’s down to 30.3 FG%. Even worse, he’s taking them far more frequently. Last year Seraphin shot as many jump shots as he did layups and hook shots combined. This year, he’s shooting twice as many jump shots as he is layups and hook shots combined. Not a great trend unless your name is Dirk Nowitzki.

Of course, one might argue, perhaps Seraphin is getting back on defense and spreading the floor better by moving away from the hoop. He must be doing something right, or else the coaching staff would change the way they use him…or sit him…right?

Part 3: Seraphin and Team Performance

Below we will show the on/off numbers for Seraphin both last year this year.

First let’s take a look at the Wizards’ rebounding numbers from last year for when Seraphin plays and when he sits.

This is a complicated chart, so let’s break it down. Last season, the Wiz rebounded better on both the offensive and defensive glass when Seraphin was on the floor than when he was off the floor. Furthermore, when Seraphin was on the floor, the Wiz rebounded better than opponents on the offensive and defensive boards; when he was off the floor the Wiz were out-rebounded by opponents on both ends. Put it all together and you see that Seraphin’s presence was a big-time positive for his team’s rebounding last season.

What about this year?

This year it’s much uglier. The Wizards rebound better on offense and defense when Seraphin sits. And while the Wizards are virtually always out-rebounded this year by their opponents, this difference is exacerbated with Seraphin playing.

What about the Wizards’ overall performance with Seraphin on/off the court over the last two years? Observe the the data from 2011-12.

Last year, even though the Wizards assisted less and turned the ball over more with Seraphin on the floor, they shot and scored more efficiently (albeit marginally) with him playing. Defensively speaking they were much better with Seraphin on the court, even though they forced fewer turnovers. Add it all up and the Wiz were 7.2 points better per 100 possessions with Seraphin playing than not playing.

This year so far?

As it is with rebounding, the Wizards’ overall performance this year is worse with Seraphin playing than when he sits. Offensively they shoot worse, pass less, turn it over more, and have an overall worse ORtg. Defensively it’s also ugly; opponents pass better, turn it over less, and have an overall better ORtg when Seraphin plays than when he sits. Add it all up and you see a Wizards team that has performed 8.6 points per 100 possessions worse when Seraphin plays than when sits.

Conclusion

Kevin Seraphin was a good player for the Wizards as a raw second-year player, but in his third season he has regressed. There is no reason to think he’s incapable of improving upon his second-year output; after all, his long jumpers and hook shots boast impressive percentages. But with that said, his overall production is down in nearly every other conceivable category, especially with regards to rebounding, finishing, and shot-selection. Seraphin isn’t entirely to blame–to an extent he is the product of his role in Randy Wittman’s system. But whatever the reason, it’s fair to say that Seraphin has been among the worst NBA players so far this season, a fact that shows up in his individual numbers and in his on/off stats with his team.

With a player of Seraphin’s talent and competitive spirit, I still have faith in his ability to become a solid NBA player. At the very least, I hope he’ll be able to celebrate his own birthday next season.

What do you see in Seraphin’s game? What does the future hold for him with the Wizards or beyond? Comment on the article or e-mail us at AGRbasketball (at) gmail (dot) com. Don’t forget to follow @AGRbasketball on Twitter and to like us on Facebook.

Choosing a First-Half MVP for Each Team: Eastern Conference

As we approach the All-Star break, AGR decided to reflect on each team’s best player so far this season. Sometimes the choice was easy (e.g., Kyrie Irving as the Cavs’ MVP); sometimes it was hard (e.g., Nicolas Batum/LaMarcus Aldridge as the Blazers’ MVP). After hours of debate, analysis, and the occasional noogie, AGR contributors Izzy and David settled on MVPs for each of the NBA’s 30 teams. The primary statistical resources used were basketball-reference.com (for PER and Win Shares), 82games.com (for opponent PER and Net +/-), and godismyjudgeok.com (for ASPM and VORP). Today, Izzy starts us out with the results from the Eastern Conference.

Atlanta Hawks (Al Horford): Choosing between Horford (5.2 WS, 18.5 PER,  2.76 VORP) and jack-of-all-trades Josh Smith (2.3 WS, 17.4 PER, 2.26 VORP) was not easy, but Horford’s clear statistical advantage was enough for us to give the nod to Al. J-Smoove is a first-class defender, but his occasional attitude issues, inconsistency, and shot selection (career-low 49.1 TS%) doomed him. Horford’s style isn’t as loud as Smith’s, but his consistency and ability to stretch the defense earned him the honor of being the Hawks’ first-half MVP

Boston Celtics (Kevin Garnett): The Celtics’ Big 3 (Garnett, Pierce, and Rondo) all have a legitimate case, but Garnett’s defense and leadership make him the best choice. Moreover, he leads the team in PER (19.4) and WS (4.6). Rondo is injured and doesn’t even conclusively make the Celts better, so it’s tough to choose him. Despite some signs of aging, Pierce is playing fine (he leads the team with a 3.00 VORP). But few players defend the post and direct a defense like Garnett, and for that we award him the first-half MVP for the Celtics.

Brooklyn Nets (Brook Lopez): I would never have predicted that Lopez would be outplaying Deron Williams at this point in their respective careers, but that’s exactly the case right now. Lopez sports a PER of 24.9, which ranks 5th in the league. Most importantly, he’s improved in rebounding (14.5 TRB%, his best since his rookie season) and defense (career best 104 DRtg; career best 5.7 Blk%, which ranks 6th in the league). There’s a reason D-Will publicly stated that he wasn’t worthy of an All-Star selection and there’s a reason Lopez was selected to replace Rondo in the ASG. Add it up and we have an easy winner. Congrats, Brook.

Charlotte Bobcats (Kemba Walker): Walker (team-leading 18.8 PER and 3.2 WS) has been one of the lone bright spots this year for the Bobcats, who are struggling amidst their rebuild. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist had a strong start to the season and Ramon Sessions has been nearly as good as Kemba, but Walker’s unexpected improvement (particularly in shooting efficiency) and leadership push him beyond his peers.

Chicago Bulls (Joakim Noah): The Bulls are once again surviving without Derrick Rose, and they have no one to thank more than Noah. Fellow All-Star Luol Deng plays a ton of minutes (league-leading 39.7 MPG), but Noah’s playing a ton of minutes as well (38.2 MPG) and filling in for recently-departed Omer Asik. Noah leads his team in Win Shares (5.1; Deng has 4.1); more importantly his energy level sets the tone for the Bulls 6th-ranked defense.

Cleveland Cavaliers (Kyrie Irving): I could write a dissertation on Irving’s game, but I’ll let his game speak for itself (peep the chortle at 1:10-1:12):

Detroit Pistons (Greg Monroe): Most of the press surrounding the Pistons has focused on rookie sensation Andre Drummond, but the Pistons’ best and most consistent player has been Greg Monroe (team-leading 4.1 WS and 2.62 VORP). He hasn’t improved as much as expected for a 3rd year player, but that doesn’t change the fact that his production is of All-Star caliber. Until Drummond’s role expands, Monroe will be the Pistons player most vital to their success.

Indiana Pacers (Paul George): Deciding between Paul George (17.0 PER, 5.9 WS, 4.11 VORP) and David West (19.9 PER, 6.1 WS, 3.46 VORP) was as difficult as any selection for this article, but George’s increased role in light of Danny Granger’s absence struck us as somewhat of a tie-breaker. George and West have both been A-list defenders this year for the Pacers’ league-best defense. Both have come up big in crunch time, too. But George’s defensive and play-making responsibilities, along with with his three-point shooting (38.8 3pt%), are too tough to ignore; for those reasons he’s our choice for the Pacers’ first-half MVP.

Miami Heat (LeBron James): Chris Bosh is shooting a career-high 60.1 TS%, Dwyane Wade is back to his old self, but LeBron is on a tear like none other in his career. LBJ (31.2 PER, .304 WS/48, 8.94 ASPM) is more than the Heat’s MVP so far this season—he’s been the best player in the Eastern Conference, if not in the entire league.

Milwaukee Bucks (Brandon Jennings): Milwaukee would be a playoff team if the season ended today, but it is difficult to decide who deserves most of the credit for that (although it’s certainly not Scott Skiles). Is it the supremely talented Monta Ellis? The enigmatic Ersan Ilyasova? Shot-blocking savant Larry Sanders? Nope, it’s got to be Brandon Jennings because of what he contribiutes in the way of minutes (team-leading 37 MPG), three-point shooting (36.7 3pt% while making over 2 threes per game), and leadership. He might not lead the team in PER (that’d be Dalembert) or WS (that’d be Ersan), but he does lead them in VORP (2.78).  It’s not pretty, but perhaps our endorsement of Jennings will earn him that max contract he’s seeking.

New York Knicks (Carmelo Anthony): It’s been shoot-out central for the Knicks this season—in a good way—and Carmelo Anthony’s offensive prowess has gone a long way to propel the Knicks to their 3rd-ranked offense. Tyson Chandler anchors their defense, leads the league in TS% (69.2), and leads his own team with 7.8 WS, so it’s not like he’s a bad pick. But Melo’s career year (personal bests in PER, TS%, and WS/48) is too much for opposing coaches to ignore when they send their double teams; it’s also too much for us to deny him first-half MVP for a surprisingly good New York Knicks squad.

Orlando Magic (Nikola Vucevic): Not everyone expected Vucevic to be the standout big man among a frontline featuring Gustavo Ayon, Glen Davis, Andrew Nicholson, and Kyle O’Quinn, but Vucevic stands out not only as the best big also as the team’s first-half MVP. Yes, Jameer Nelson has had a bit of a revival (when healthy). Yes, Arron Afflalo and J.J. Reddick has shouldered bigger offensive loads (when healthy). But no Orlando player has brought the consistency or the numbers to compete with Magic’s young and surprisingly good center (18.0 PER, team-best 4.4 WS and 2.21 VORP).

Philadelphia 76ers (Thaddeous Young): The Sixers might be struggling without franchise cornerstone Andrew Bynum, but that’s no fault of their first-half MVP Thaddeous Young (17.7 PER, 4.6 WS, 2.92 VORP). It’s tempting to choose Jrue Holiday (18.3 PER, 2.9 WS, 3.07 VORP), whose contributions are more visible than those of Young. But Thad’s strengths–protecting the ball, interior passing, rebounding, and career-best defense–are subtle ones, and it’s one reason why he has such strong plus/minus numbers. He might miss too much time with his curent injury to be his team’s MVP over the whole season, but he deserves the honor of being the Sixers’ first-half MVP.

Toronto Raptors (Jose Calderon): Things are a bit awkward in Toronto. First, when they lost their franchise cornerstone Kyle Lowry to injury, the team improved under the facilitating play of Jose Calderon; they even kept him as the starting PG when Lowry returned. Despite this motion of trust and repsect from the Raptor organization, they proceed to trade away their first-half MVP in order to acquire Rudy Gay, a player who somewhat replicates DeMar Derozan’s skillset. No, I can’t explain Toronto’s strategy (either in the short-term or long-term), but what I can say with confidence, however strange, is that current Detroit Piston Jose Calderon was Toronto’s best player for the first half of the season.

Washington Wizards (Nene): The Wizards have been somewhat newsworthy of late with John Wall’s return from injury and the team’s subsequent improvement. Much of this success is attributable to Wall, but lost in the fold has been the play of perennial All-Star Nene, who leads the team in PER (18.8) and WS/48 (.142). The Wizards’ recent improvement has coincided with Nene’s increased playing time. He has played more games than Wall, is helping anchoring a stellar defense with Emeka Okafor, and is the team’s most reliable scoring option. Wall might soon replace Nene as the team’s MVP, but for the first half of the season, the big Brazilian gets the nod.

Stay tuned for a look at the first-half MVPs for the Western Conference sometime next week!

Where do you stand on the Paul George-David West debate? Did we overrate Brandon Jennings or underrate Tyson Chandler? Ler us know in the comments. You can also email us at AGRbasketball (at) gmail (dot) com, like us on facebook, and follow us on Twitter!