Before diving into anything else, a quick moment of reflection on Bill Walton. I’ve really enjoyed reading about people’s memories of him–people loved this man with all their hearts, and he loved them. Two notes about what what he means to me:
- He was a symbol of that athletes could also be hippies, and his psychedelic persona was a welcome addition to the basketball culture
- I think we can all learn from Bill’s best qualities: perseverance, unselfishness, humility, positivity, and free-spirited nature.
At long last, we’re back to the sacred time of year that is the NBA Finals. This year’s Conference Finals didn’t produce much drama, but I’m optimistic that the sheer level of talent in the Finals will give us a matchup worth watching. But before we recap or preview any further, let us look at the BSB(R) standings.
Almost unthinkably, Brad will be a Big Shot Rob (Bob) champion. Equally surprising is that Jesse has the chance to join him. The two of them are fine people–don’t get me wrong. Smart, funny, attractive…they have lots of things going for them. But accurately predicting basketball outcomes is not one of those things. I’m speechless, but I checked the math and the formulas in the spreadsheet five times.
Let’s put it this way: I didn’t want Donald Trump to win the 2023 presidential election, and it won’t change my views as to whether he is a good president for the country, but I will accept the results as fair and square. Similarly, if Brad and/or Jesse win the BSB(R), I won’t necessarily update my beliefs about their basketball forecasting abilities, but I can accept the outcome of their victory.
(Also, to be clear, I’m just messing with Brad–he’s a newcomer to basketball and has already proven a to be a formidable, despite being new to the world of fantasy basketball and silly online playoff pick ’em tournaments.)
Conference Finals Recap
Celtics vs. Pacers: It was the closest four-game sweep you could imagine, and it was all the more impressive considering Tyrese Haliburton missed Games 3-4. The Celtics won Game 1 in overtime after the Pacers choked away the end of regulation (and Jaylen Brown hit this ridiculous shot to send the game into OT; the Pacers had a 90+% win probability with 10 seconds left. ). Game 2 was a bit of a blowout, but Game 3 was another comeback: despite being without their star, the Pacers led by 18 in the third and had 95+% win probabilities both then and when they led by 8 with 2:26 to go. But then Jrue Holiday happened: An and-one layup, steal, and free throws to close the game. And, because it was that kind of series, Game 4 showed a similar story–the Pacers led by 8 with 5:56 to play (90% win probability), and again, the Celtics came back. This time the comeback was punctuated by a Derrick White three with 45 seconds to play, which would be the game’s (and series’) final points and the game winner.
It was a valiant effort for the Pacers, but it was also a sweep that spoke to some people’s biggest critique of the Celtics, which is that they falter in close games. Kudos to the men in green.
- G.O.A.T: Jayson Tatum. Sure, he didn’t have the signature moments in this series, but he averaged 30.3 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 6.3 assists. Yeah, he’s pretty good.
- Goat: I sound like a broken record, but injuries. For Hali–an All-NBA player this year–to get injured mid-series, robbed us of what could have been a much closer series.
Wolves vs. Mavs: Another close, but not-so-close series. The Mavs took Games 1 and 2 in Minny. Game 2 was the backbreaker–the Wolves led by 15 early in the third quarter with a 90+% win probability. The Mavs came back, and then won behind Luka’s game-winning step-back three over Gobert with 3.1 second left. Going back to Dallas up 2-0, the Mavs were in the driver’s seat and the rest was more or less history. The Mavs won a lightly contested Game 3, the Wolves won a close Game 4 on the road, and then the Mavs thrashed the Wolves in Minnesota to end the series. My main takeaway–Luka Doncic is here and has good as anyone in the league, whereas Anthony Edwards (despite the hype) still hans’t cracked the league’s top tier (or top-two tiers?) of NBA players.
- G.O.A.T: Jayson Tatum. Sure, he didn’t have the signature moments in this series, but he averaged 30.3 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 6.3 assists. Yeah, he’s pretty good.
- Goat: Karl-Anthony Towns. The man anointed himself the best-shooting big man in NBA history, yet shot 37.9% FG and 24.2% 3PT. Couple that with ongoing foul trouble and weak plays around the basket, and you have a scapegoat.
An ever-so-brief NBA Finals Preview (which has already started…whoopsies)
- One narrative of this series is a heliocentric offense (i.e., the Luka-centered Mavs) vs. the team-oriented Celtics. Heliocentrism works when you can use your playmaker to pick on the defense’s weak link, but the Celtics may be big and versatile to neutralize that.
- How good will Kristaps be? (Update: very good.) He’s a boost over Al Horford on both sides of the ball, but he has a tendency to take difficult shots, which could gum up their offense and hurt their chemistry. There’s only one ball, and the Celtics could hurt for having Kristaps taking more shirts (again, update: this may be a dumb take).
- Will Kyrie be the series’ X-factor? It feels disrespectful to call a player as good as Kai and X-factor, but in this series he is because of the need to give Luka support and because he’s the only player here who has true championship experience. Kyrie knows what it takes to win at the highest level, and his leadership may be pivotal on a stage where nobody else has succeeded.
Alone In The Green Room 